Disclaimer: Be prepared for a lot of candid speech and opinions. This is a personal blog, after all, not a PR statement. None of what you read here should be considered financial or investment advice.
Over the past week Google showed a demo of Bard, which its weapon against ChatGPT. I don’t need to link ChatGPT to you, because you’ve already used it. Really, underlying ChatGPT is the threat of OpenAI, and underlying that is the threat of Microsoft. I have some wild theories to expound on based on this series of events.
Microsoft has historically taken a “fucking kill Google” strategy back when alleged coke fiend Steve Ballmer was running the company. The same man who likened Linux to “cancer” and its users literal Communists, and other such things. Over the past few years, moods changed, maybe Ballmer stopped allegedly snorting cocaine, and Microsoft elected a CEO who is not a balls-to-the-wall insane tired old white maniac. Since his time as CEO, he made Microsoft more profitable than ever, and Microsoft has done a million great things for open source including TypeScript, to name one major one. In essence, Microsoft has become more like Google. I like Microsoft now.
When ChatGPT became publicly accessible, everyone started using it every day, and Microsoft announced they were going to take a 49% stake of OpenAI in the future, Google shit bricks. They have held off for far too long, pissing away time on pointless projects, killing several important ones people loved in the process. Time has shown this not to be the working strategy of a genius company at the pinnacle of technology, but rather the insane and impractical decision making of mere madmen. (and women and everything else)
Roughly a decade of doing relatively fucking nothing of importance has cost Google big. (Oh wow, Android 9! Bet you’re using Angular and not React!) Now they have to rush to actually be a real company again. This blog represents my own opinions, and nothing else. In my own honest opinion, Google is fucked. Google rests on its power as a search provider, an aggregator of things, and the company with secret super smart “AI” tech you can’t audit that does cool things you don’t even know about bro, just trust them. Microsoft now has a public face of being able to dominate in all of those respects in short order. I have signed up for the Bing beta test of their Chat integration, rumoured to be powered by the as-of-yet unseen GPT-4. You can see it at bing.com on the front page.
In my opinion, this kills the Google. And it’s not just my opinion. Go look at a stock chart for Google and Microsoft and look up investor articles. There’s a strong correlation between the drop in Google stock and rise in Microsoft stock. Stocks will vary in value, and experience random movements, but this is no mere coincidence. As fraudulent and crazy as the US stock market is, at the end of the day people buy and sell news that might indicate some kind of fundamental value. Microsoft has it, and Google does not any more.
Google has a very interesting challenge if it wishes to survive as a company. Generally, I don’t give a damn if any of these companies live or die. I’m not brand loyal, I’m mostly an anarchist and loyal only to disloyalty in many respects. I just enjoy speculating about what will happen next. I won’t rant much further, and I’ll let you DYOR. Here are my predictions for the future.
- GPT-4 gets integrated into everything Microsoft. Web browser, email, OS, coming phones.
- Samsung, who has been working with Microsoft, works together with Microsoft to fork Android.
- Future Galaxy phones are Windroid open source phones that slowly slip away from Google.
- Microsoft doubles down on integrating Android apps into Windows so they don’t need to support Windows Store apps that nobody in their right mind is using. They just drink Google’s milkshake.
- Alphabet lives on as a company, but YouTube breaks off into its own company of a sort, and the remainder of Google is liquidated.
This series of predictions has no fixed timeline, but these are my honest beliefs. Maybe this process will take 5 years, or maybe 10 years? I know what I know, and I could be very wrong. Be kind in comments if you choose to comment. I have spoken.
Important Edit to Article
Today, that is one day after posting the original article, this happened.